High Surf Advisories

[Goldak]

I read this surf advisory this morning:

A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM SOUTH OF ALASKA HAS GENERATED A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FIRST HAS GENERATED ANOTHER WESTERLY SWELL THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.

EVEN THE MOST EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ROCKS AND JETTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AS WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY SWEEP PERSONS INTO THE WATER.

ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL EARLY... MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER LARGE WESTERLY GROUNDSWELL WILL GENERATE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SURF 15 TO 20 FEET BEGINNING TUESDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. WITH A WESTERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED... WEST FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WILL SEE SIMILAR WAVES DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 14 TO 17 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TO 20 FEET POSSIBLE AS WELL BY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE LARGE WAVES COULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME.

I'm just learning how to hunt the beaches so I'm not sure how significant this forecast is. I would think that bigger than normal waves means sand movement which can be good for detecting. Any experts out there that can confirm this notion? Thanks! HH!
__________________
Fisher 1280-x, 1220-x, Whites Surf PI Pro.

 

[arizonaames]

The earthquake off the coast of northern CA will also cause some big surf!

 

[MDfinds]

n/t

 

[Tom_in_CA]

What part of the west coast are you at goldak? I'm in central CA (on the Monterey Bay area), and we too are watching this closely. It's already been downgraded a few feet, but is still predicted to be at 18-ish foot (when it makes landfall) at the more exposed surf-break spots by Wednesday. When it first came into the forecast models, it was said to be at 20 ft. or so by Wed, so you can see how it's already getting downgraded. I've seen this before, where they announce potential high surf advisories (which is issued anytime it's supposed to be 15 ft. or better). Yet on the day of the event, it wimps out and arrives at 12 or 13 ft., for instance. So what I'm saying is, I don't get too excited about these predictions, till the actual day, as they sometimes wimp out. Then I watch the actual buoy reports in my area, for the hours surrounding the high tide, to see if the high tides and swells actually ended up coinciding together.

The other factor with this Wed. prediction, is the direction: It's supposedly gonna be about 280*. That's neither S. or SW enough to get into SW facing beaches, nor is it NW enough to get into our NW facing beaches. That leaves only west facing beaches. The problem there is, that the west facing beaches are generally acclimated to higher levels of surf, to begin with, IMHO. Of course the direction doesn't have to be 100* aiming at a beach in question, but the minute you factor in coastal points that create shadows (like Pt. Conception, and the channel islands of So. CA, for instance), it really downgrades the impact at shadowed points. The best erosion occurs when there is a clear line from the open ocean to hit wherever you intend to try. And the beaches that are normally exposed to higher levels of surf, tend to get acclimated to that. So those beaches require higher levels of surf, to acclomplish erosion (as opposed to a normally calmer beach, where it might erode with lesser levels of surf). This is because mother nature tailors her beaches with slopes, off-shore shallows, courseness of sand, etc.... to acclimate to the "norm" of that ocean view (hence the very different look and feels of different facing beaches. Ie.: some have that "Baywatch" look, while others are raspy and windswept looking, etc...)

Here's some more tips for CA (centered on central CA, but you can extrapilate to wherever you're at on the west coast). To view this, you have to be a member of this forum. But it's easy: just make a name and a password, and you're on:

http://forums.kinzlicoils.com/topic/7115111/1/#new

 

[Goldak]

Tom, Great stuff there and I really appreciate it! I am in the L.A. area (about an hour's drive from the beaches). What you have said makes a lot of sense. The only time I hunted at Santa Cruz was right after the surf was about 20 ft. high which I believe is substantially high, even for your area. I don't know which direction the waves came from but I always thought "the north" as I do remember many HUGE tree trunks had been washed up on the beach. HH!