Ever see any studies/musings on Loss Rate at the beach?

[KinTN]

In the absence of old jewelry, I wonder what the jewelry loss rate is for beach-goers. Anyone ever see any posts by anyone trying to get a mathematical handle on how many beach/water play-hours it takes to have a jewelry loss? eg, 2000 people spending 5 hours at the beach would result in 4 jewelry losses; or some such....

I don't get to the beach much, but my first find was a very tarnished silver ring, however all subsequent rings appear to be relatively recent drops. Also reading some writings of some successful longtime hunters, it seems that they often calculate when to go hunting based on when they expect the most fresh drops. (unless they are playing shifting sands, of course). Common sense says more people hours on the beach = more losses, but Someone has to have tried putting math to the problem.

 

[mudpuppy]

Yes...and it will drive you completely insane...!
Demographics/technology changed too much, so the math that was good in the 60's no longer applies....Math takes all the fun and mystery out of everything and has no bearing on Luck or Dreams...

You can do a little test in your hometown, next time you go to the store.. see how many people out of 100 are wearing gold...whens the last time any one of them has been to a beach? You can tell by the looks...

Now start looking for gold chains people are wearing...big ones, not the little ones with a tiny crucifix that you will have a hard time finding in a totlot...great big chain you could use as a dog collar kind of thing...how many of those do you see in a year?...

Its a wonder we find anything at all, the mathematics make the odds so infintessimal..just to find ONE gold ring on this big Planet is astounding when you think about it mathematically.....I guess its like the lottery, dont think about the odds too much, people play it for the 'dollar dream'...If people thought about math, nobody would ever buy a ticket!.

So out we go, against extremely long odds, day after day, beating along down the beach, mile after mile...dream hunting for that ring.....anyone that was ever any good at math didnt amount to much anyway..my brother in Law is a tax accountant, but he cant fix a car or build a boat...has a nice house though, (damn, maybe I have wasted my life chasing a dream afterall!))....
Mud

 

[OldBeechnut]

, it seems that they often calculate when to go hunting based on when they expect the most fresh drops. (unless they are playing shifting sands, of course). Common sense says more people hours on the beach = more losses, but Someone has to have tried putting math to the problem.

The more you go the more you learn about one areas habits, In OCMD I have "some what" figured out the best weeks for fresh drops, put me in VB, just a few hours south and all changes, different people, different incomes and habits. So I really don't think there is a set way of figuring out the numbers unless you get to know the area...and it's visitors. And it can change also due to the influx of different cultures. Five years ago I had one area that I would get gold from every few days, And VB Max called it the Gold Fields of the Northern Terra. . Now you are luck to find a junk ring...different people,...have taken over this daily area.

 

[mudpuppy]

Yeah...think about this...everybody has a cell phone, so lets say theres a ring lost on a heavily hunted beach..all the person has to do is stand right there and call Ringfinders...or, stand right there and pick from one of the many old guys that will be coming along with their rig shortly...zing! NO more lost ring!.

Plus, theres no 'barrier to entry' for anybody that wants to be a beachhunter..heck, with any introductory rig, virtually NO experience, and a vegetable strainer for a scoop, a fellow is in business!

I believe what we find regarding gold rings were mostly dropped pre 2000...probably mostly dropped int he 60's-70's... there was no cheapo rings... folks had money and wore gold and went to the beach a lot...

Now think about how many gold rings have been found over the years at any popular beach...in the thousands most likely...even in this relatively short time where these detectors were invented and used, it boggles the mind to try to even assign mathematical equations to accurately assess the odds of finding a drop...

I would say the future for us gold hunters will be to pick a subset skill specialty within this sport that has a steep barrier to entry, and requires some skill, strength, etc...y'all know what i'm talking about...
Mud

 

[Goldstrike]

Ditto to all the above. I also think the chances/odds of finding big gold or any gold for that matter is to do some homework but at the same time, don't get hung up on statistics. Like Mud intimated, a heavy reliance on stats will drive you crazy! Yes, check the weather reports and tide tables and get swinging after that big storm stirs the beaches up to look for all that old gold to be exposed etc;.
It's always an unknown how many detectorists are hitting a particular stretch of beach and while we are all snuggled up in bed at 2am, who knows how many guy's and girls are swinging coils on the beach we plan to hit later that morning? resulting in no gold or silver but perhaps some clad.
Also, you would think that after spring break, the beaches should be loaded up with a lot of collectible stuff with maybe some gold mixed in? The kids/teenagers nowadays do not wear valuable jewellery with the exception of a silver ring once in awhile. You will see once in awhile a gold (maybe plated?) chain hanging around a big dude's neck but it's rare anymore you'll find one of those.
One of my nicest gold rings came off a beach where there was a retirement home almost on the beach and I can't help but think it came from an elderly person from there that went on the beach for a stroll or in a group visit to the beach. I should have visited there and inquired if anyone had lost a ring but I suspect that most everyone with fuzzy memories (bless their hearts)! would have claimed it was there's! lol!!
So some homework is required but after all is said and done......gold is where you find it and always remember, even the most experienced cannot cover all the beach and they will occasionally miss those gold and silver targets for you to find!

 

[bootyhoundpa]

Hindsight is 20/20. From my limited saltwater gold finds it has been my experience that you will find gold in the area of lower and midrange motels rather than the top dollar ones.... the poor want people to think they are rich and the rich dont like showing off ... one thing is for sure, there is alot more good stuff lost than will ever be found ! the real question i ponder is what pecentage of lost jewelry ever gets found?

 

[SeabeeRon]

The mathematics of ring finds is a ratio of the amount of sun tan lotion applied divided by the alcohol consumed multiplied by horsing around performed!

 

[PSS1963]

You guys are great!

Computer modeling (of transistor performance) is what my group at work does. Of the two tasks, we got the easier one . . . its all driven by physics and its very repeatable. What you are trying to model is essentially statistical (i.e. random) and there are more variables than data points. I'm reminded of that Three Stooges skit where Curley has 3 wrist-watches on and he explains that one watch is fast, the second one is slow and the third is stopped completely. So Moe asks him "what time is it?" - Curley pulls a working one out of his pocket and gives Moe the time.

Basically, you know how much gold jewelry you can find when you are in the car and on your way home.

-pete

 

[Dancer]

Spring break beaches got to be the best. Thousands of teens in different stages of debauchery, wearing valuables that were gifted to them. That they have no regard for.